Tuesday, 24 September 2013
Why opinion poll surveys are not to be trusted!
Indian voters have always proved that mood in the opinion polls and the actual results of the election are often contradictory in nature. It is the basic law of nature, “the actual can never be staged, the way exactly it is going to happen.” Being said that, most scientifically conducted opinion polls might throw some light on what is going to happen, but it won’t disclose no matter what, what will actually happen?
*Why opinion surveys are no accurate?
Advantages of survey method of opinon collection:
• Relatively easy to administer
• Can be developed in less time
• Cost-effective
• Capable of collecting data from a large number of respondents etc..
Disadvantages:
• Respondents may not feel encouraged to provide accurate, honest answers
• Not Ideal for Controversial Issues
Finally the whole idea of opinion surveys or polls, is generalization of the results of a few crores[may be 2-5 crore ppl on 100 crore+ ppl]. In a country like India, generalization has least effects.
Now let us consider some facts and figures:
The following data is about the 2009 general elections:
Predictions and Polls for the 2009 Lok Sabha Elections in India
1. According to the second Star-Nielsen poll, the Congress will win 155 seats (203 with UPA allies), while the BJP will win 147 seats (191 with NDA allies) (via TOI).
2. Arun Nehru at the Deccan Chronicle predicts that the Congress will win 157 seats (193 with UPA allies), compared to the 132 seats for the BJP (177 with NDA allies).
3. The Times of India predicts that the Congress will win 154 seats (198 with UPA allies), while the BJP will win 135 seats (176 with NDA allies).
4. According to The Week, the Congress will win 144 seats (198 with UPA allies), while the BJP will have to settle at 140 seats (186 with NDA allies).
5. Shreekant Sambrani at Business Standard predicts that BJP will emerge as the biggest party with 137 seats (184 seats with NDA allies), ahead of the Congress, which will win 119 seats (176 seats with UPA allies, including LJP/ RJD).
6. India TV also predicts that the BJP will emerge as the largest single party with 144 seats (187 seats with NDA allies), ahead of the Congress, which will win 133 seats (178 seats with UPA allies).
7. According to BJP's own survey, conducted by G V L Narasimha Rao, the BJP will win 160 seats (217 with NDA allies) compared to 135 seats for the Congress (180 with UPA allies) (via TOI).
Why so much diversity among various polls? Because, opinion polls are conducted on a small group of people. And then these results are generalized over a larger population. So disparities are expected to occur.
*Also nowadays online opinion polling is a trend. But can one really expect rural people to go to cyber centres in their villages or travel to the nearest city to a cyber café and take part in online polling. That’s pretty much bullshit. As most of Indian population comes rural[The Rural population (% of total population) in India was last reported at 69.90 in 2010, according to a World Bank report published in 2012], online based opinion polls showing 80% ppl voting modi lead bjp [http://election.intoday.in/] and many others are totally biased.
Now lets view the facts of actual 2009 General Election Results:
Results of General Elections 2009 (543/543)
Alliance Seats Won
NDA 160
UPA 262
Third Front 79
Fourth Front 28
Others 14
So, when we compare the actual and opinion survey facts, we can see how inaccurate, opinion surveys can be. But this do not mean opinion surveys be abandoned totally. But, in fact, social scientists must try and discover more avenues to obtain accurate opinion results.
Sunday, 24 February 2013
Friday, 8 July 2011
Murder 2 review
Story
Arjun (Emraan Hashmi) is an ex-cop who earns money by doing odd jobs for gangsters and flesh traders. Priya (Jacqueline Fernandez) is a model in love with Arjun. But he is hesitant to commit to this relationship.
A Goan flesh-peddler called Sameer is suffering heavy loss as his hookers have been disappearing mysteriously. Sameer assigns Arjun to trace the missing girls. Arjun finds that all those girls are connected to one cell phone number and makes a plan to catch the antagonist Dheeraj (Prashant Narayan). He decides to send a girl to the particular customer. Reshma (Sulagna Panigrahi) becomes the innocent prey to the plan. She is a college student who takes to prostitution to support her family. The unexpected happens and both Dheeraj and Arjun land up at the police station. While Dheeraj admits his crime, Arjun gets one night to find all proof against Dheeraj and also to trace Reshma.
Plus points
Taking forward the Murder brand the sequel gives an edge of the seat entertainment. The story is totally new with fresh characters and more bolder and erotic scenes with evil being the key component in the film. The Bhatts choose to make films with totally new cast instead of big stars. This has once proved to be a successful choice.
Director Mohit Suri, had a great responsibility to take ahead the success of Murder, directed by Anurag Basu. A thumps up to him as he with writer Shagufta Rafique has managed to deliver an efficient and stylish story in Murder 2. The varied use of the characters in the plot is what makes the film interesting. It should be noted that all the characters introduced are either grey or black in nature. The serial killer revelation comes as a real jolt.
The Bhatts have a good record as far as music is concerned. Murder 2 is no exception, 'Haal E Dil' (music by Harshit Saxena) and the track featuring Yana Gupta, 'Aa Zara' (music by Sangeet Haldipur-Siddharth Haldipur) are first-rate compositions. Ravi Walia's cinematography is top notch. Screenplay is fast paced and gives you no time to ponder, giving you a nail biting experience.
Loopholes
Murder 2 has drawn some inspiration from the Korean film The Chaser (2008), but honestly it is not a blatant rip-off. Writer Shagufta Rafique has added on her colours and style to the story of Murder 2. The story however stagnates towards the beginning of the second hour. The sequence between Emraan and Jacqueline at the former's home, with Jacqueline in a drunken state seems like a forced add-on. One also misses out on the chartbuster 'Bheege Honth Tere' from the first installment ofMurder.
Performances
Both Emraan and Prashant Narayanan are top notch. Emraan plays the role of an angry guy to perfection that his can be called as one of his accomplished roles so far. Prashant is dynamic. Jacqueline being bold and sexy grabs a lot of eyeballs for the oomph factor. Her performance is decent. Sulagna Panigrahi is talented. Sudhanshu Pandey is confident. Sandiip Sikcand is surprising. Shweta Kawatra shines. Yana Gupta sizzles in the opening track.
Over all
On the whole, Murder 2 is a fine crime story delivered by Bollywood. It lives up to the expectations of theMurder franchise. Infact Murder 2 is more bolder, erotic and has a brilliant story to say. This can be a money spinner for Bhatts!
Cast & Crew
Starring: Emraan Hashmi, Jacqueline Fernandez, Sudhanshu Pandey, Prashant Narayanan, Sulagna Panigrahi, Sandiip Sikcand, Shweta Kawatra
Director: Mohit Suri
Producer: Mukesh Bhatt
Screenplay: Shagufta Rafique
Story: Mahesh Bhatt
Music: Harshit Saxena, Mithoon, Sangeet Haldipur, Siddharth Haldipur
Cinematography: Ravi Walia
Editing: Devendra Murdeshwar
Arjun (Emraan Hashmi) is an ex-cop who earns money by doing odd jobs for gangsters and flesh traders. Priya (Jacqueline Fernandez) is a model in love with Arjun. But he is hesitant to commit to this relationship.
A Goan flesh-peddler called Sameer is suffering heavy loss as his hookers have been disappearing mysteriously. Sameer assigns Arjun to trace the missing girls. Arjun finds that all those girls are connected to one cell phone number and makes a plan to catch the antagonist Dheeraj (Prashant Narayan). He decides to send a girl to the particular customer. Reshma (Sulagna Panigrahi) becomes the innocent prey to the plan. She is a college student who takes to prostitution to support her family. The unexpected happens and both Dheeraj and Arjun land up at the police station. While Dheeraj admits his crime, Arjun gets one night to find all proof against Dheeraj and also to trace Reshma.
Plus points
Taking forward the Murder brand the sequel gives an edge of the seat entertainment. The story is totally new with fresh characters and more bolder and erotic scenes with evil being the key component in the film. The Bhatts choose to make films with totally new cast instead of big stars. This has once proved to be a successful choice.
Director Mohit Suri, had a great responsibility to take ahead the success of Murder, directed by Anurag Basu. A thumps up to him as he with writer Shagufta Rafique has managed to deliver an efficient and stylish story in Murder 2. The varied use of the characters in the plot is what makes the film interesting. It should be noted that all the characters introduced are either grey or black in nature. The serial killer revelation comes as a real jolt.
The Bhatts have a good record as far as music is concerned. Murder 2 is no exception, 'Haal E Dil' (music by Harshit Saxena) and the track featuring Yana Gupta, 'Aa Zara' (music by Sangeet Haldipur-Siddharth Haldipur) are first-rate compositions. Ravi Walia's cinematography is top notch. Screenplay is fast paced and gives you no time to ponder, giving you a nail biting experience.
Loopholes
Murder 2 has drawn some inspiration from the Korean film The Chaser (2008), but honestly it is not a blatant rip-off. Writer Shagufta Rafique has added on her colours and style to the story of Murder 2. The story however stagnates towards the beginning of the second hour. The sequence between Emraan and Jacqueline at the former's home, with Jacqueline in a drunken state seems like a forced add-on. One also misses out on the chartbuster 'Bheege Honth Tere' from the first installment ofMurder.
Performances
Both Emraan and Prashant Narayanan are top notch. Emraan plays the role of an angry guy to perfection that his can be called as one of his accomplished roles so far. Prashant is dynamic. Jacqueline being bold and sexy grabs a lot of eyeballs for the oomph factor. Her performance is decent. Sulagna Panigrahi is talented. Sudhanshu Pandey is confident. Sandiip Sikcand is surprising. Shweta Kawatra shines. Yana Gupta sizzles in the opening track.
Over all
On the whole, Murder 2 is a fine crime story delivered by Bollywood. It lives up to the expectations of theMurder franchise. Infact Murder 2 is more bolder, erotic and has a brilliant story to say. This can be a money spinner for Bhatts!
Cast & Crew
Starring: Emraan Hashmi, Jacqueline Fernandez, Sudhanshu Pandey, Prashant Narayanan, Sulagna Panigrahi, Sandiip Sikcand, Shweta Kawatra
Director: Mohit Suri
Producer: Mukesh Bhatt
Screenplay: Shagufta Rafique
Story: Mahesh Bhatt
Music: Harshit Saxena, Mithoon, Sangeet Haldipur, Siddharth Haldipur
Cinematography: Ravi Walia
Editing: Devendra Murdeshwar
Monday, 4 July 2011
mind and soul: Mission Ultimate Knowledge!!!
mind and soul: Mission Ultimate Knowledge!!!: "Hello my dear friends, i believe and have experienced books are the best friends at the end of the day. The reasons for this are:- 1>B..."
Sunday, 3 July 2011
Mission Ultimate Knowledge!!!
Hello my dear friends,
i believe and have experienced books are the best friends at the end of the day. The reasons for this are:-
1>Books gives you only good things(depends on what types of books you read).
2>Books enlighten you.
3>Its the best way to spend time and many many more...
So, i have finally decided and have made up my mind to sit in front of my P.C. and read a book everyday. By doing this i want to test my limit and want to explore a whole new world. My first aim is to read 30 books in 30 days. Yes it is tedious, but it will be very much interesting and what a great opportunity it is to acquire uunlimited knowledge.
Ok then, lets start it. Today, now i'm starting with the book "The Psychopath Test" by Jon Ronson which has 275 pages. Ok then take care and keep visiting.
i believe and have experienced books are the best friends at the end of the day. The reasons for this are:-
1>Books gives you only good things(depends on what types of books you read).
2>Books enlighten you.
3>Its the best way to spend time and many many more...
So, i have finally decided and have made up my mind to sit in front of my P.C. and read a book everyday. By doing this i want to test my limit and want to explore a whole new world. My first aim is to read 30 books in 30 days. Yes it is tedious, but it will be very much interesting and what a great opportunity it is to acquire uunlimited knowledge.
Ok then, lets start it. Today, now i'm starting with the book "The Psychopath Test" by Jon Ronson which has 275 pages. Ok then take care and keep visiting.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)